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At first, Donald Trump seemed to adopt a resolute stance on the Ukrainian conflict. Following making warnings of "significant consequences" during the summer should Putin persisted blocking peace negotiations, Trump finally imposed substantial penalties on the Russian two largest oil companies, these major energy companies. This decision seriously impacted Putin's capacity to support his war effort in the region.

But, through his recently unveiled detailed peace proposal for Ukraine, which was developed by US and Russian representatives without Ukraine's or European input, Trump has seemingly gone back to his favorable to Russia position.

Benefiting Aggression

This initiative would essentially benefit the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Despite ringing statements that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", large portions of the plan effectively undermine that very independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate past, Trump seems to view the Ukrainian conflict as a simple land disagreement, like handing Putin a portion of Ukraine's land will satisfy the leader. But, Russia's invasion is not simply about occupying a damaged swath of economically weakened land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's clear goal to destroy it so it no longer functions as an appealing standard for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that his increasing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Land Giveaways

While freezing in status the already separated regions of these areas, Trump's plan would compel the nation to abandon the entire Donetsk province. Beyond rewarding Russia with area that its troops have been unable to seize in exceeding a decade of fighting, this concession would render Ukrainian military defenses dangerously weakened.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that represent a critical barrier to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these positions, providing Russian forces a open path to Kyiv if he eventually choose to resume the conflict.

Defense Reductions

Then, in a action that would facilitate renewed conflict easier for Russia, Trump would require Ukraine to diminish the scale of its military from their existing large number personnel to a maximum of this lower number. Notably, Trump's plan sets no such constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to characterize the nation's chosen by the people leadership as Nazis, Trump's plan asserts: "Any Nazi doctrine and activities must be condemned and forbidden." Seemingly to underscore this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in three months" of a truce. Meanwhile, the proposal places no obligation that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Security Guarantees

To be sure, the proposal includes Russia commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "incorporate in law its position of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". However given that Putin has violated equivalent agreements in the history – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to recognize the nation's sovereignty in exchange for giving up its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia committed to a truce and a return of seized territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – how should anyone trust this commitment now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international defense commitments. While the plan promises a "decisive coordinated armed reaction" if the Russian Federation resume its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the particulars range from vague to alarming. The plan would not only block Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude Nato members from positioning troops on the nation's land, effectively preventing the reassurance force, likely headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Russia from replenishing his diminished troops, re-equipping, and attacking again.

Global Concern

A separate parallel deal according to sources would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any future "major, deliberate, and continuous military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an act of war endangering the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a armed reaction. Yet unlike a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's most reliable deterrent against future Russian aggression – the credibility of the parallel accord would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, such as the US administration, to respond with force to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not